March 2006
Law School Applicants – You May Be Ten Years Too Old!
(Note. An ABA approved law schools means that it is American Bar Association approved.)
So, is it harder to get into law school than it used to be?
The number of applicants to North American law schools has experienced highs and lows – and the gap between them has been huge. In Canada law school applications increased during the 80s and hit a high in 1990. By 1995, applications had fallen considerably. For example, Osgoode Hall had approximately 3500 applications in 1990. By 1995, applications had fallen to approximately 50% of that. In general, the trend toward increases and decreases is the same for both Canada and the United States.
The Number of Applicants To U.S. ABA Approved Law Schools
The number of applicants (to U.S. ABA approved law schools) declined throughout most of the 1990s. It was not until the late 1990s that the number of applicants to North American law schools began a steady increase. To view the exact numbers visit:
http://members.lsacnet.org/The chart makes it clear that the number of applicants to ABA approved law schools:
- Reached a low in the 1997-1998 year with 71,700 applicants applying to start law school in the fall of 1998.
- Reached a high in the 2003-2004 year with 100,600 applicants applying to start law school in the fall of 2005.
- Began a decline in the 2004-2005 year when 95,800 applicants applied to start law school in the fall of 2005 (a decline of 4.8% from the previous year).
This means that the percentage increase from the low in 1997 to the high in 2004 was 33.6%.
The final totals for 2005-2006 are not yet available. However, an interview with Wendy Margolis of Law Services reveals that as of March 10, 2006 there were 76,570 applicants to ABA approved law schools. This figure of 76,570 is a 7.3% decrease from the number of applicants received by March 10, 2005.
In other words, the number of applicants to law schools is cyclical and the cycle has started to reverse itself. Cycles move slowly like a "super tanker". Since interest in law school moves in cycles, it seems reasonable to expect that the downward cycle in law school applicants will continue for at least a few more years.
Possible Reasons For The Decline in Law School Applicants
Why are the numbers of applicants to law school declining? One cannot know for sure, but anecdotal evidence suggests some of the following factors may be at work.
- A perception that it is too hard to gain admission to law school.
- The cost of law school. The cost of law school has increased substantially in the last decade.
- A reluctance to take on more debt, by financing law school from student loans.
- A relatively healthy economy with good job prospects. Some have advanced the view that interest in law school increases when the job prospects are bad. (I have my doubts. The worst decline in law school applications in Canada (1990 – 1995) occurred during the worst recession since the depression of the 30s.)
- Competition from other career options. We are living in a time of unprecedented choice. A number of other careers offer a satisfying life.
The Number of LSAT Tests Administered
As one might expect, the number of LSATs administered has declined along with the number of applicants. The following data that goes back to 1987 will allow you to track interest in law school.
http://www.lsac.org/LSAC.asp?url=lsac/tests-administered.aspThat the number LSAT tests administered is declining, is bad news for all participants in the LSAT test preparation industry. To put it simply, there are more and more LSAT preparation courses and books competing for fewer and fewer LSAT test takers.
The current downward cycle in numbers of applicants has not escaped the national media. You may find the following article to be of interest.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2006/02/09/fewer_looking_toward_law_school/The Long Term? When Will Applicants to ABA Law Schools Increase Again?
Who knows? But, I suggest it will be a long time. In February 2006, Heather Sokoloff of the National Post wrote a series of articles about the declining fertility rate (which is apparently greater in Canada than in the U.S.). The article I am linking you to below, talks about the effects of a smaller number of "school aged" children. As the article points out, the obvious effect is that there are now fewer children in schools. Flash forward ten years. This suggests fewer people applying to law school (unless of course large numbers of people leave the work force to make law a second career).
Those interested can find the article at the following link:
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/bodyandhealth/story.html?id=aefa5ecf-227e-4f38-8f06-6f77cd4eb99fThe Moral Of The Story is ...
Wait ten years! Things are almost sure to be easier unless of course they close some law schools. (Don’t laugh! In 1990 Osgoode Hall had approximately 330 first year places. That number was reduced to approximately 270.)
It would be interesting to take this short article, seal it in an envelope, and open it in ten years to see how hard it is to get admitted to law school.
John Richardson
LSAT – GMAT – MCAT – GRE Preparation
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
www.prep.com